Математична модель оцінки загроз для об’єктів критичної інфраструктури в зоні ведення бойових дій

R.K. Murasov, T.L. Kurtseitov, S.M. Chumachenko, O.V. Lunova, O.V. Pyrykov, A.O. Lunov

Abstract


The paper examines a mathematical model of threat assessment for potentially dangerous objects of critical infrastructure in the combat zone. Using the theory of graphs and the theory of probability, an approach is proposed that allows obtaining quantitative estimates and conducting an analysis of possible scenarios of the development of an emergency situation. This work will be useful in the development of different classes of ecological and man-made threat assessment mathematical models for critical infrastructure facilities in the war zone.

 Prombles in programming 2022; 3-4: 446-454


Keywords


mathematical model; potentially dangerous objects; critical infrastructure; assessment; ecological and man-made threats; graph topology; complex system; probability of disasters

Full Text:

PDF (Ukrainian)

References


Ivanyuta S. (2017). Threats to critical infrastructure and their impact on the state of national security (monitoring of the implementation of the National Security Strategy). Analytical note. Кyiv: NISD. 10 p. (in Ukrainian).

Biryukov, D.S., Zaslavskyi, V.A., Yevhienko, V.V., Franchuk, O.V. (2009). Modeling and assessment of threat scenarios for critical in- frastructure objects // Scientific notes of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. Volume 99. Computer Sciences. Р. 97-101 (in Ukrainian).

Lysychenko, G.V., Zabulonov, Yu.L., Hmil, G.A. (2008). Natural, man-made and environmental risks: analysis, assessment, manage- ment. Monograph. Кyiv: Naukova dumka. 542 p. (in Ukrainian).

Lysenko, O.I., Chekanova, I.V., Kutovyi, O.P., Nikitin, V.A. Risk management strategies at critical infrastructure facilities under condi- tions of uncertainty [Electronic resource] Access mode: http://www.niss.gov.ua/content/articles/files/infrastrukt-86de2.pdf . (in Ukrainian).

Chumachenko, S.M., Trotsko, V.V. (2017). Assessment of threats to critical infrastructure facilities. Scientific bulletin: Civil defense and fire safety. Vol. thirteen. Кyiv: UkrNDI Center. P. 41-47 (in Ukrainian).

Uryadnikova, I.V., Chumachenko, S.M., Karmazin, S.V., Teslenko, O.M. (2015). Application of expert-analytical methods for assessing the risks of emergency situations at critical infrastructure objects // Scientific Bulletin of the Academy of Municipal Management. Series: Technology. Vol. 1, P. 206-2018 (in Ukrainian).

Chumachenko, S.M., Kutovyi, O.P., Mykhailova, A.V. Application of expert analytical methods to assess threats to critical infrastruc- ture objects of the defense-industrial complex in the east of Ukraine. Nature management engineering. 2020. No. 4(18). P. 114-123. (in Ukrainian).

Fursenko, O.M., Chumachenko, S.M., Karmazyn, S.V. Expert assessment of threats to objects of critical infrastructure of the gas trans- portation system of Ukraine using the method of analysis of hierarchies. Technological and ecological safety and civil protection, Vol. 9, 2015. P. 68-77. (in Ukrainian).

Chumachenko, S.M., Murasov, R.K., Melnyk, Ya.V. Theoretical and methodological foundations of information analysis of ecological and man-made threats to potentially dangerous objects of critical infrastructure i the conditions of armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Modern information technologies in the sphere of security and defense. No. 1 (40), 2021, p. 117-122 (in Ukrainian).

Tailings repositories of Donbass. Report on the OSCE project. 2019. - 50 p. https://www.osce.org/uk/projectcoordinator-in-ukraine/456847

Models and algorithms for optimizing the reliability of complex systems / V. L. Volkovich, A. F. Voloshyn, V. A. Zaslavskyi, I. A. Usha- kov; Ed. Acad. V. S. Mykhalevych. - K.: Naukova dumka, 1992. - 312 p. (in Russian).

Murasov, R.K. Methodology for calculating the probability of a successful landing of an aircraft. Science and technology of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 2012. No. 3(9). P. 53-57. (in Ukrainian).

Robin Wilson. (2019). Introduction to graph theory. 240 p.

Lunova, O.V., (2018). Modeliuvannia stsenariiv rozvytku tekhnoekosystem// Heotekhnichna mekhanika: mizhvid. zb. nauk. prats. Dnipro, 2018. Vyp. 143. S. 40-48 https://doi.org/10.15407/geotm2018.143.040. (in Ukrainian).

Lunova, O.V. (2020). Prohnozuvannia stupenia ekolohichnoi nebezpeky za intehralnym pokaznykom ekolohichnoho vplyvu Ekolohichni nauky: naukovo-praktychnyi zhurnal K.: DEA, Vypusk 2 (29) Tom 1, 2020, 24-31 s. https://doi.org/10.32846/2306-9716/2020.eco.2-29.1.4 (in Ukrainian).


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.