Scenario-adaptive model of optimization of resource expenditures for the system of ensuring the functional stability of the information system by the criterion of minimum losses from incidents

O.O. Bakaiev, V.L. Shevchenko, V.A. Chystiakov, O.V. Derhylova

Abstract


The paper develops a scenario-adaptive model for optimizing resource costs for the system of ensuring the functional stability of the information system based on the criterion of minimum losses from incidents. The concept of functional stability is adopted as the main metric of quality criteria, since it is difficult to completely eliminate incidents, but it is quite realistic to ensure the functional stability of the system, even in the presence of incidents. The purpose of the paper is to develop multidimensional models of beneficial effects and func tional stability of systems with the properties of scenario adaptation for further optimization of costs for in formation system protection systems. As the main component of the model of functional stability of infor mation systems, it is proposed to use a scalar convolution based on the Kolmogorov-Gabor polynomial. To ensure structural adaptation of the model to different scenarios of system application, an indicator of the level of interchangeability of subsystems in the system is included into the model. The total system resource is used as a resource adaptation parameter. Spatial trajectories of the movement of optimal solution points have been constructed depending on the parameters of structural and resource adaptation in the space of subsystem re sources and the useful effect of the system. A logistic model of losses from attacks has been developed, de pending on the level of resource provision of protection. For each level of attack severity, the optimal level of protection costs has been determined, which takes a value from 0 to 12.5% of the IT organization's budget. Errors in determining the optimal amount of protection costs lead to an increase in losses from attacks. It has been determined that when the severity of attacks is more than 12%, errors in the optimal protection costs in the direction of increase are safer than errors in the direction of decrease from the optimal value. When the severity of attacks is less than 12%, errors in the direction of decrease from the optimal value are safer.

Problems in programming 2026; 3: 36-44


Keywords


model; forecast; optimization; information system; protection; functional stability; scenario; adap tation; resource consumption; incidents

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